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Crisis measures likely to swing Hungarians to the right

Posted on: Fri April 09, 2010

BUDAPEST: After eight years in opposition, former Premier Viktor Orban looks set to win Hungary s general elections, which kick off on Sunday, but he will face a new political force: the far-right Jobbik party.

Opinion polls ahead of the first round put Orban s right-wing Fidesz party far ahead with 57-59 per cent of votes, with the ruling Socialists trailing on 10-20 per cent.    

That is a far cry from the last elections in 2006, when the Socialist Party (MSZP) narrowly defeated Fidesz by 43.21 per cent to 42.03 per cent.    

But the surprise has been Jobbik, which looks set to claim between nine and 17 per cent, perhaps even beating the Socialists to second place according to the Szazadveg Institute.    

Jobbik means better in Hungarian and is short for Movement for a Better Hungary. It has links with other far-right parties in Europe, such as France s Front National and the British National Party and critics have denounced its anti-Semitic, anti-Roma rhetoric.    

It could now enter parliament for the first time after a meteoric rise that culminated in its winning almost 15 per cent of the vote in European elections last year.

Most polls predict only these three parties will enter the new parliament, although the left-wing green party LMP and the neo-conservative MDF could also reach the five-per cent threshold.    

A key question is whether Fidesz will secure a two-thirds majority, which would allow it to change the constitution.    

Hard hit by the global economic crisis, Hungary is slowly emerging from the slump, thanks to the Socialist government s rigorous budgetary programme, following a 20-billion-euro international bailout.    

A public deficit of 4.0 per cent in 2009, compared to 9.1 per cent three years ago, has helped stabilise the local currency the forint and the Hungarian market is regaining international investors confidence. Hungarians look likely to punish it by voting to the right on April 11 and 25. Fidesz s charismatic leader Viktor Orban, 46, who was prime minister in 1998-2002, has promised to create one million jobs over the next 10 years.    

He has pledged significant tax cuts to relaunch the economy, which shrank by 6.2 per cent of gross domestic product last year, and has called for all politicians involved in corruption to be punished.    

Jobbik whose banned paramilitary wing, the Hungarian Guard, was reminiscent of WWII Hungarian fascists is also appealing to the populist vote, promoting a Hungary for Hungarians. In his farewell speech to parliament last week, Premier Gordon Bajnai a technocrat who took over last April after Ferenc Gyurcsany s resignation urged the next government to carry through the economic reforms he introduced. Fidesz has predicted a public deficit of around 7.0 per cent in 2010 far above the 3.0-percent threshold allowed by the European Union blaming it on the Socialists poor financial policies.    

 A (forecast) public deficit of 3.8 percent for 2010 is a ridiculous calculation by the MSZP, Fidesz spokesman Peter Szijjarto told journalists.    

Such lapses are unlikely to be tolerated by the International Monetary Fund or the European Union, which both contributed to Hungary s bailout. A growing deficit could also further delay the country s introduction of the euro.    

 Hungary needs the euro as soon as possible and 2014 is still a possible deadline for its introduction , Bajnai insisted last week.    

Opinion polls were already predicting low turnout for the election.    

The campaign failed to rally voters and only about 53 percent were expected to vote on Sunday, Szonda-Ipsos polling institute said. In 2006, turnout was 67.83 per cent in the first round.

Courtesy : The News